Predicting the Complete Results of This Weekend's Race Using Paint Schemes

My advanced predictive analytic model knows exactly what happens at Sunday's NASCAR race at Darlington based on how the cars look.

As a genius-level NASCAR prognosticator, I need to invent new challenges for myself in predicting the twists and turns of the 2025 season. So, with my favorite track Darlington Raceway coming up on the schedule, and the much-celebrated throwback paint scheme weekend returning, I decided to predict the entire finishing order for all 38 cars in the 2025 Goodyear 400. But I’m not using a mathematical model, since finishing order in NASCAR often flies in the face of mathematics. I’m using pure Graphic Design Energy. We’re ranking paint schemes here on the NASstack. Ugliest scheme finishes last, prettiest scheme wins.

Here’s where it gets difficult. Some very good cars have ugly schemes, and some very bad cars knocked their throwbacks out of the park. And in my hypothetical scenario, these cars all have to run in the exact same Goodyear 400 to finish where they do. So, in order to justify the paint scheme finishing order, I’ll need to create scenarios that could transpire and create this exact result in a way that’s believable for the drivers involved and at this track. Got it? Hope you do, because this ended up being extremely long!

38. Ryan Preece

THERE’S A BUTTER ON THE CAR. Normally I am against photographs in graphic design, but this? This will not be an exception. This is whatever the opposite of an exception is. I will use the corner butter as my forever example of why figurative images are forbidden. It is distracting, alienating, cheap, and gross looking. It even cuts off the bottom of the corner butter!¹ This fails in every way, and that’s before you get to the rest of it.

Obviously all the colors clash and the hood logos are somehow both in the wrong place. The multiple different fonts and sizes on the side of the car look like those soulless computer generated Airbnb decorations, the grey cube on the dining table that says AnÔthęR WINE? WINE ñ0T! Almost fittingly, the car has the same overly-textured fake wood paneling that you often see in those same Airbnbs!

I love Preece, and I think he has upside this weekend, but sadly he is going to run over a bunch of tire spikes coming to the green flag and flip his car somehow. 0 laps completed in this jalopy.

37. Ty Gibbs

This is very boring. This is so boring that an identical boring car in this same race is made to look much better because of this one.

Ty Gibbs has had an abysmal stretch of races going back to the start of the 2024 playoffs. This time a year ago, he was a top 5 threat every week, and sharps were convinced that “this is the week to lay your bankroll on Ty, I know we said that last week but the first win is finally here!” Now, 6 starts away from the milestone 100th start, Ty looks further away from a win than he did on start number 6. So, while it’s becoming strange to see a driver/car combo with this much upside still winless, no one will be surprised when Ty wrecks out of Sunday’s race on lap 30 after attempting to clear himself in front of Austin Hill’s bumper trying to pass for 25th.

36. Austin Hill

Busy, yet forgettable. Austin Hill will be making one of his handful of starts in the part-time RCR #33, an entry that increasingly looks like a concession car, a “Please Don’t Leave” car that RCR uses to keep its two talented Xfinity Series drivers around while the team owner’s grandson putters around in 29th.²

RCR can’t give their main cars anything better than C-tier speed on a regular basis, so their part-time entry is unlikely to be better. And though Austin is a veteran at the lower levels, the Cup Series is a different beast entirely, so I have him wrecking out early through little fault of his own.

35. AJ Allmendinger

AJ Allmendinger HATES Darlington. He has had the occasional decent run here over his 876 year career, but for the most part, he can’t figure out how to string four good corners in a row here (his words!) So I think he told Kaulig Racing to try even less than they normally do with the Action Industries paint scheme. The only time it will be on tv is when he spins it out just before the end of stage 1 and breaks a toe link when it hits the fence.

34. Chase Elliott

Originally I wanted to rank all the cars with throwback schemes ahead of all the cars who refused to do throwbacks, regardless of driver skill or how unlikely the finishing order would be. But some throwbacks deserve to be shunned. This is the worst throwback I’ve seen in years, particularly when you attempt to compare it to the actual car it’s referencing. This is a triumph of arbitrary brand guidelines over the evil forces of doing a good job and having fun.

Chase Elliott has never been a standout at Darlington, and I expect him to struggle, compounding his middling speed with slow pit stops, before getting collected in a larger crash on lap 91 just after the stage 2 restart.

33. Austin Cindric

Cindric’s throwback sucks. The black stroke on the number 2 and plain colors makes it look like a Me Doing Photoshop At My Old Office Job job. It’s the absolute bare minimum to not get fired, and maybe a bit less. So he’s going in the crash with Elliott. I call this crash on lap 91 the Bad Throwbacks crash; I’m putting them all in here. But this happens at Darlington. The track is pretty narrow, and a coming together on a restart can take out a lot of competitive cars.

32. Ty Dillon

If you are a casual/new NASCAR fan, you would be forgiven for thinking this is a throwback to a very famous and iconic car, otherwise, why would they do it? It’s not, and this is bad, and the name Beaver Street Fisheries is not fun to say. So Ty Dillon is going into the Bad Throwbacks crash, albeit from a little further back. He’ll be running 30th when the cars spin in front of him and will plow into the wreckage from 1000 feet back.

31. Carson Hocevar

Full disclosure: I think Carson Hocevar is going to be very fast in this race. He is knocking on the door of his first win. I also think he drives over his head, and he could very easily wreck himself trying to make a pass in the top 5 on lap 116. This is what he gets for driving an extremely boring, non-throwback scheme.

30. Riley Herbst

At least this has a better looking number than Ty Gibbs’s car. And green on the bottom. Herbst and Shane Van Gisbergen are both rookies, and both are running perilously behind on ovals. That’s why they’ll get caught up in the lap 123 Big One that wipes out half a dozen guys on the restart after the Hocevar spin.

29. Shane Van Gisbergen

This looks unfinished. The primary color stripes are ok, I guess. Another piece of flotsam and jetsam in the lap 123 Big One. SVG really needs to run higher than 30th on ovals soon, or win a road course, because I’m about to hit the panic button.

28. Brad Keselowski

Unfortunately this looks like pee. You know what else looks like pee? Brad Keselowski in 2025. I blame new crew chief Jeremy Bullins, who seems completely lost with the Gen 7 car if his 3 years running in the 30s with the 21 are anything to go by. But it could also be age; Keselowski is 41 and that’s pretty much been his average running position too. Keselowski won this race last year, but his car has been so genuinely slow this year that it’s easier to see him running 27th than leading laps. He’ll be running back with Herbst and SVG when the wreck happens.

27. Chase Briscoe

The Bass Pro Shops paint schemes just get grayer and grayer. More bad, vaguely fascist design trends. Why can’t we have fun? Why can’t we have ORANGE?

Another race winner at Darlington last year, Briscoe could easily set the pace early and lead laps, especially now that he’s in a top tier ride at JGR. But in this race, he’ll speed on pit road when the whole field pits after the Carson Hocevar caution, and have to start in the back on lap 121. And he’s a bit of a wrecking ball too, so on his way through the field, he makes a low percentage move that takes himself out, along with a few other backmarker cars in the lap 123 Big One. Briscoe is always causing some shit.

26. Justin Haley

Slightly boring but not offensively ugly scheme for the 7 here, this is the usual sponsor they run for most races. Justin Haley has shockingly good runs in bad cars in this race, and while I could see him contending for the win late, I could also see him running 30th. No idea. I’m going to wreck him out in stage 3 while racing back in the pack for 15th with Ross Chastain.

25. Kyle Busch

While this is a bad paint scheme, I do enjoy seeing the Tron Croissant every now and then. Kyle Busch needs a win bad, and when someone needs a win bad, they push too hard. I can vividly picture Kyle Busch either wrecking out or messing up on pit road while running in the top 3 with 35 laps to go. Let’s give him a loose wheel on the last round of green flag pit stops. Sorry Kyle, maybe you should have done a throwback.

24. JJ Yeley

JJ Yeley is not supposed to be up here. He’s driving a part-time entry for NY Racing, and they’re going to be more than a second per lap off the pace, guaranteed. However, he’s running a throwback, and while it’s not a particularly interesting one, it looks clean enough and accurate enough that it’s at least better than 14 other paint schemes here.

So we have an issue. This car that will get lapped on pure speed every 30 laps, but we have it finishing 24th. It’s not common that the 25th-38th place cars all wreck out in different crashes, but that’s what it’s going to take for a car that will finish at least 5 laps down to finish P24, if it finishes at all. These wrecks have to be big, so they’re going to involve 7-10 cars.

23. Cole Custer

I get what they were going for, and it’s an iconic scheme, but without the Target logo to incorporate into the design, there’s a lot of empty space on the car. Plus the number looks really weird. Custer will be another victim of the Bad Throwbacks wreck, but he’ll keep it going well enough to finish as the last car one lap down.

22. Austin Dillon

This has a lot going on, but I like the kind of corny futuristic stuff. I don’t know what Breztri is, but I’m sure it’s some evil pharmaceutical made by the Umbrella Corporation that turns people into zombies. Anyway, Dillon will get lapped early, and after all the wrecks, metriculate up to 22nd, where he’ll finish a lap down.

21. Michael McDowell

This looks alright, but there’s not enough of the white and red on it. It could be a good design, but it threw away the potential. Michael McDowell’s team also loves to throw away decent runs. There will be numerous times throughout the year where the entire field will pit during green flag racing to get fresh tires, and that’ll be the optimal strategy. Staying out until your fuel runs out on older, slower tires is an atrocious strategy at most tracks unless a caution comes out during the pit cycle. Then the guy who stayed out pins the entire field a lap down, and he can pit for free and still keep the lead.

McDowell tries this all the time and it never works. I really think they should stop this, but I think they’ll be a 15th place car at Darlington, which is exactly the type of situation where they’re incentivized to pull this crap. They’ll fall two laps down when their strategy doesn’t work, and only make it as far back as P21.

20. Ross Chastain

Normally I am against photographs in graphic design, but a big ass fish with a huge mouth makes me laugh. This is ok. Chastain will finish 1 lap down after getting some damage in his wreck with Justin Haley.

19. Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Get rid of the bottle! We’re so close to an all-time paint scheme, in fact Stenhouse has even driven some great Sunny D schemes in the past, but alas. In this coming race, Stenhouse will run poorly, outside the top 20, get lapped, but keep it clean enough that he’ll be the first car one lap down by the end. Like we said before, this race is going to be a wreckfest, so weird things will happen.

18. Tyler Reddick

Points for trying, but I don’t like that the (way too close up) sesame seed bun is seemingly floating in a sea of ketchup. Ketchup grosses me out, especially when there’s way too much of it. I’ve had a funny feeling that Tyler Reddick is going to win this race since before the season started, but just like at this race last year, he could have a serious problem late. I predict a close quarters battle for the win with Reddick and our eventual winner that sees Reddick spinning out on the final lap, leaving him finishing as the last car on the lead lap.

17. Zane Smith

Long John Silver’s! Look at the little guy! And the parrot! Why the hell not? Zane Smith will get some damage in the Big One but keep it pointed straight enough for a lead lap finish.

16. Todd Gilliland

Very little going on here, but it uses fonts I like. Todd Gilliland will get some damage in the Big One but keep it pointed straight enough for a lead lap finish. Front Row Motorsports is banking on you not ever really noticing or knowing the difference between Todd Gilliland and Zane Smith, and I think they’re right.

15. Cody Ware

Oh dear. This car is not supposed to be up here. We can get JJ Yeley to 24th with a lot of wrecks, but it’s genuinely impossible for me to envisage Cody Ware having a legit top 15 finish at a track like Darlington. But his throwback car is very clean and accurate! Quandary.

The only way I can think of that this will happen: Cody Ware gets a very bad stomach virus eating at the Shoney’s a few miles down the road from Darlington. This means they will need to do a last minute driver swap, and Corey Lajoie has run a couple of races for Rick Ware Racing in their part time 01 car this year. He lost his full-time ride last year for being kind of a bum, but he’s pretty good at Darlington. So he gets in this last place car and survives the wrecks well enough to be on the lead lap in the final stint.

14. Christopher Bell

I have no idea what’s going on here. It’s a throwback to a really old dirt sprint car I guess? Sure, it looks very bad, but I’m giving Bell a lead lap finish because the 0 in the 20 has quotation marks on it. He’ll be a top 10 car until he speeds on pit road during a stage 3 round of green flag pit stops, get the free pass on the final caution, and finish towards the back of the lead lap.

13. Alex Bowman

This is boring, but in an ominous way. It’s a throwback to peak era Jimmie Johnson, who was himself ominous and boring. Bowman will lose track position early and slowly inch his way up through the field. This is not one of Bowman’s better tracks.

12. Noah Gragson

BEEF A ROO! That’s all.

11. Denny Hamlin

This is the best of the Boring Good throwback schemes. It looks exactly like Carl Edwards’s Office Depot cars from the 2000s, and I fully expect Hamlin to put on Edwards-style dominance at one of Hamlin’s best tracks. But, in typical Hamlin/Edwards fashion, something will go wrong late. They’ll get trapped a lap down when Kyle Busch loses his wheel on the final round of pit stops, and this is as far back up as they’ll get.

10. John Hunter Nemechek

Slight demerits for being based on his father’s old ride but using much less cool colors. This still has a lot going for it; it’s a fun design and the number thing is different. We are now left with the unenviable task of figuring out how to get John Hunter Nemechek a top 10 at Darlington. Not that he’s bad at Darlington - he has lower series wins here - but Legacy Motor Club is so off on speed that it’s hard to envisage. But if he can have a good run early on in the race and keep himself from going a lap down, I am forced to believe in him.

9. Joey Logano

It’s not my favorite weird, antiquated scheme (the different yellows and reds clash too much,) but there are some old fonts that make it look extra historic. Plus it says Supreme Quality Safe Lubrication. Logano could be a survivor, working the attrition to be there at the end like he did when he won in 2022, or he could run outside the top 20. I lean towards the latter, with him using pit strategy to steal some track position late, but ultimately he’ll fade to ninth with a car as slow as he’s been most of the last 24 months.³

8. Ryan Blaney

Ryan Blaney has been the fastest car all year, and he’ll likely be the fastest car again at Darlington. But he’s been snakebit this year, and at Darlington throughout his career. One can so easily see him winning or crashing out and finishing in last. So with that in mind, I’m giving him a boring 8th place run.

As for his paint scheme, I don’t think I’m going to get a lot of people to go with me on this one. This doesn’t look “good,” but it does look like what I picture when I picture a race car. It’s good appropriately garish race-car-esque colors. Plus, the slashes make the car go faster!

7. Chris Buescher

I don’t know, do I have boring taste? The pattern is intriguing but not busy, and the gradient works well with it. It’s corporate but not plain. This is the car I picture when I picture when I think about Chris Buescher’s dominant runs in the Gen 7 car. It’s a throwback to 2023. Let’s say Chris Buescher runs top 10 all day, and if he’d only have been better at restarts he’d have contended for the win.

6. Bubba Wallace

Colors, obviously we love them. Fake paint splatters, obviously not as much, but they are extremely retro even if this isn’t a real throwback scheme. Bubba has been qualifying up front and mostly maintained his track position at Darlington lately, and has the most laps run in the top 5 so far this season. He can keep it around sixth all day.

5. Daniel Suarez

Huh. I didn’t think I liked this paint scheme that much, but I guess I do. It wasn’t on my radar, but I love the little bits of primary colors against some pleasing greens and golds. Likewise, we have to figure out how in the world to get Daniel Suarez a top 5 at Darlington, something that seems very unlikely. I guess they’re going to have to try the Michael McDowell play and stay out during green flag pit stop in stage 3. And when Kyle Busch loses a wheel, Suarez will be the major beneficiary, trapping better cars a lap down. Still, he’ll have to hold on to his lead late, and that will take a miracle. But what did I say about slashes?

4. Erik Jones

Erik Jones is super elite at Darlington, as long as his equipment allows him to be. He has two wins here, while he’s mostly struggled and remained winless at other tracks. It’s not often that a car that runs 30th most weeks has genuine winning upside, but if Jones can find a shred of competency in the Legacy Motor Club Toyotas, he will lead laps here. I’ve put both Legacy cars in the top 10, since they’ve brought the best paint schemes as an organization this week. They’re probably going to have the slowest cars though. But that red and blue 43 is up there with the Jeff Gordon 24 in terms of iconic paint schemes.

3. William Byron

Speaking of the 24, this is a carbon copy of the car Jeff Gordon drove in his final Cup Series start. It gets accuracy points, shiny points, and flames points. Byron is absolutely lethal at tracks like Darlington when he gets track position early. He doesn’t run out to a 10 second lead, but he has enough short run speed and precision on pit road to always make up spots and never fall out of the Top 5. He’ll do the same in our hypothetical race.

2. Kyle Larson

I hate having the clear race favorite this far up, but that scheme is just perfect. It’s a dead ringer for the Terry Labonte 2003 Darlington-winning Frosted Flakes car, and those colors just scream peak NASCAR. Kyle Larson is either going to lead 100 laps, get mired in the pack somehow and wreck going through traffic, or both. But as much as I love this scheme, I’m so relieved to give another car the winning drive.

1. Josh Berry

British Racing Green. Ahhhhh. What a beautiful color. The Wood Brothers were faced with the difficult task of making a very old Indy 500 paint scheme translate to a Gen 7 stock car, and they smashed it. They have a main color we never see in NASCAR, a couple of Old Fonts (and you know how much we love those), and a number inside a white circle that just screams vintage racing.

Berry was one of the biggest question marks going into the season. Was he someone who didn’t win enough in the Xfinity Series to prove he belonged here, or is he an above average driver who made terrible Stewart Haas Racing equipment in 2024 look better than it was as a rookie? Is the Wood Brothers 21 a true Penske car, or does it belong in last where Harrison Burton⁴ had it? Seven races in, Berry has a win at Las Vegas and multiple strong runs where he’s run as good as or better than some of his Penske “team”mates. He’s not setting the world on fire, but he’s proving a lot of doubters wrong, and if he wins Darlington, no one will be shocked.

1. It’s not even really butter!!!!

2. If Austin Dillon finally moves into a management role and Kyle Busch finally escapes RCR for a team whose cars even sort of match his talent, there’s a chance we could see BOTH Austin Hill and Jesse Love move up to RCR’s cup rides in 2026.

3. He won a championship in that time. Being slow and using strategy to steal track position works.

4. Harrison Burton AND crew chief Jeremy Bullins. How’s Bullins doing with Brad Keselowski’s 6 car this year? Hmm……