Every 2025 NASCAR Driver Preview Part 2: The Mid Tier
The 24th-13th ranked drivers and teams of 2025, according to one self-appointed expert's blind hunches.
This piece will, hopefully, be shorter than The Bum Tier piece. I promised myself I wouldn’t get carried away with word count in my season preview, but when you start a substack for an obsession that no one else in your life has even a casual interest in let alone shares with you, it’s hard to turn the hose off. These takes have been overstuffing themselves into my brain for years, and now they’re bursting out like the Great Molasses Flood. And that’s the story of how I wasted 4500 words on Todd Gilliland.
This third of the NASCAR Cup Series field is at least more compelling from a competitive point of view. I grouped these twelve drivers together because they all have somewhere in the range of a coin flip chance to make the playoffs, and it’s a virtual certainty that a handful of them will win throughout the season. Yet, when the mid-tier drivers win, it’s usually a huge surprise and a thrilling race. I’ll try to predict where they might win.
24. AJ Allmendinger, Kaulig Racing #16, Chevrolet
THE DINGER! We’re starting off with a bona fide A-number-one OUR GUY©. Rampant favoritism will be a constant presence on this substack, and I will be heavily tilting my coverage and analysis in favor of Our Guys. Allmendinger returns to the Cup Series full-time after bouncing back and forth between the Xfinity Series and Cup Series in the past 7 years, all for Kaulig Racing. In the lower series we got to see just how good AJ really is in good equipment, something we were all robbed of for most of his career. His one shot in good equipment came in 2012, when he got the fairly fast Team Penske #22 (if a tick off from Penske’s juggernaut status in recent years.) Allmendinger lasted half a season, almost got his first oval track Cup win, before being suspended for testing positive for: drum roll…….ADDERALL! The thing half of our society and all our government is addicted to! In retrospect, that’s like banning someone for Too Much Coffee.
STRENGTHS - The “Road Course Ringer” phenomenon refers to drivers who are brought into NASCAR from other disciplines for their prowess on road course tracks. Allmendinger came from IndyCar, and has had arguably the most successful cup career of all the Road Course Ringers, with three wins in below-average equipment.
WHAT WILL DOOM HIM - Allmendinger’s equipment this year is below the average of his usual below-average. Kaulig has a very strong chance to be the slowest Chevrolet team this year, and AJ being ranked 24th is a testament to his talent. But there’s someone else out there, a demon from hell who has been sent to ensure AJ never wins another road course race.
ANY PERSONALITY? - Here’s my impression of AJ Allmendinger on the radio to his team, while running P11 at Homestead:
“FUCKING GARBAGE MOTHERFUCKING SHITBOX CAR. PLOWING FUCKING TIGHT. NO GOD DAMN TURN ON THE TOP OR THE BOTTOM. THIS FUCKING CAR IS HOPELESS.”
WHERE WILL HE WIN? - At the Charlotte Roval, AJ already has a win. The hybrid oval-road-course allows him to showcase his talents, but is not as technical as other road courses and won’t punish him for abusing his brakes and tires.